Box Office Predictions for the weekend of Jul 22-24

This weekend, #1 will go to one of two movies: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which was #1 last weekend, or the newest 'flick' from Michael Bay, The Island. Charlie is the first movie this summer that I would say truly has "legs" and can maintain a high level of success for several weeks. It is a movie that people will see several times. The Island comes from director Michael Bay, a director who is best known for making films that are reviled by critics and other directors (as Trey Parker sings in the song "The End of an Act" from Team America: World Police, "Why oh why does Michael Bay get to keep on making movies?"), yet are massively successful at the box office. While Island has the big names draw of Ewan McGregor and Scarlett Johannson, the big action draw of Michael Bay, and the semi-thinking draw of a sci-fi plotline, it also has the aforementioned taint of Michael Bay. Charlie, on the other hand, has much to recommend it, as I described last week: the built-in appeal of a remake, the cult appeal of Tim Burton and Johnny Depp, and now the strong word of mouth appeal. The only thing dragging down its box office take is that it's in its second week. If Charlie and The Island opened opposite each other on the same weekend, Charlie would easily take the number one spot. Even without the opening weekend draw, I predict it will still take the number one spot.

Number 1 prediction for the weekend: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory