Weekend Box Office Predictions

I'm going to do something crazy. No movie this year has held the number 1 spot for 3 weeks consecutively, yet that's exactly what I predict Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is going to do. I do this because I feel it has no real competition in this week's new releases Stealth, Sky High, and Must Love Dogs. Stealth is a "popcorn flick", a movie whose trailer is like ipecac to serious film lovers, but generally does well at the box office by drawing non-film lovers with the promise of intense action sequences. However, this is not the summer for popcorn flicks, as the failure of The Island would suggest. The box office is in a slump this year, and the people that go to see popcorn flicks aren't going to the movies. Film buffs still are, however. Sky High is a Disney kids movie that only appeals to kids. In fact, it only appeals to kids with taste in bad movies, but thankfully for Walt's frozen corpse* and co., that's most of them. Must Love Dogs is a chick flick that appeals to, well, chicks. John Cusack may draw a larger crowd than this movie would normally get, but not enough to bring it to number 1.

Indeed, the only serious competition Charlie has at the box office is from Wedding Crashers, the number 2 film from the previous two weekends. In fact, I will grant that a Wedding Crashers number 1 is quite likely; the gross of the two films will be very close. That be said, I think a Charlie number 1 is slightly more likely and so I will err in its favor.

My box office prediction for the weekend of July 29-31: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, for the 3rd weekend running.


*Walt Disney isn't frozen. He's buried at Forest Lawn. Nonetheless, the phrase "Walt's frozen corpse" is very funny.