Weekend Box Office Predictions

I'm going to do something crazy. No movie this year has held the number 1 spot for 3 weeks consecutively, yet that's exactly what I predict Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is going to do. I do this because I feel it has no real competition in this week's new releases Stealth, Sky High, and Must Love Dogs. Stealth is a "popcorn flick", a movie whose trailer is like ipecac to serious film lovers, but generally does well at the box office by drawing non-film lovers with the promise of intense action sequences. However, this is not the summer for popcorn flicks, as the failure of The Island would suggest. The box office is in a slump this year, and the people that go to see popcorn flicks aren't going to the movies. Film buffs still are, however. Sky High is a Disney kids movie that only appeals to kids. In fact, it only appeals to kids with taste in bad movies, but thankfully for Walt's frozen corpse* and co., that's most of them. Must Love Dogs is a chick flick that appeals to, well, chicks. John Cusack may draw a larger crowd than this movie would normally get, but not enough to bring it to number 1.

Indeed, the only serious competition Charlie has at the box office is from Wedding Crashers, the number 2 film from the previous two weekends. In fact, I will grant that a Wedding Crashers number 1 is quite likely; the gross of the two films will be very close. That be said, I think a Charlie number 1 is slightly more likely and so I will err in its favor.

My box office prediction for the weekend of July 29-31: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, for the 3rd weekend running.


*Walt Disney isn't frozen. He's buried at Forest Lawn. Nonetheless, the phrase "Walt's frozen corpse" is very funny.

Abstinence and Michael Bay

I saw an interesting blurb on the IMDb news today. It read:

"Celibate Kids To Urge Studios To De-Sex Movies

Under a banner proclaiming, "We raise the bar. We push the limits. We make things happen, and Hollywood will never be the same," a group calling themselves the Abstinence Clearinghouse (Rolling Stone last month described them as "The Young and the Sexless") said Wednesday that it will bring together 1,000 supporters in Hollywood next week to urge filmmakers to produce sex-free movies. The Sioux Falls, SD-based group said that it plans to hold its ninth Abstinence Leadership Conference from August 4-6 with the theme "Lights, Camera, NO Action.""

A list of recent sex-free movies, compiled from memory:
1. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
2. March of the Penguins
3. Napoleon Dynamite
4. Kill Bill Vol. 1 & 2
5. Shaun of the Dead
6. School of Rock
7. Madagascar
8. The Longest Yard
9. The Passion of the Christ
10. The Incredibles

I feel any further commentary, such as, oh, I don't know, pointing out that if you don't want to see a movie with sex in it, you can save your $9, or even, if seeing a movie with sex is too tempting, maybe abstinence just isn't for you, would be irrelevant. Of course, I can't blame them. They're from South Dakota, and as I understand it, SD is so boring that the only things to do are have sex, go to the movies, or make a point of not having sex.

Putting all that to one side, the big box office story of this week is the absolute failure of Michael Bay's new picture, The Island. This is the first Michael Bay picture to not open at number 1, and everyone's grasping for an explanation. One theory I haven't heard is my personal one, that the failure of The Island can be placed solely at the feet of "South Park" co-creator Trey Parker. Although critics have been hating Michael Bay for as long as he's been making movies, none have been so vocal as Parker was in the funniest movie of last year, Team America: World Police, in which he sang, "Pearl Harbor sucked, and I miss you." Now, maybe it's my imagination, but I honestly believe that that song was a catalyst prompting many film buffs to profess their hatred, or at least profound dislike, of Messr. Bay's movies, and so for the past 10 months I've heard more about how much Michael Bay sucks than ever before in my life. The Island is the first movie Bay has come out with since Team America, and it's his very first flop. Coincidence? Probably.

Box Office Predictions for the weekend of Jul 22-24

This weekend, #1 will go to one of two movies: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which was #1 last weekend, or the newest 'flick' from Michael Bay, The Island. Charlie is the first movie this summer that I would say truly has "legs" and can maintain a high level of success for several weeks. It is a movie that people will see several times. The Island comes from director Michael Bay, a director who is best known for making films that are reviled by critics and other directors (as Trey Parker sings in the song "The End of an Act" from Team America: World Police, "Why oh why does Michael Bay get to keep on making movies?"), yet are massively successful at the box office. While Island has the big names draw of Ewan McGregor and Scarlett Johannson, the big action draw of Michael Bay, and the semi-thinking draw of a sci-fi plotline, it also has the aforementioned taint of Michael Bay. Charlie, on the other hand, has much to recommend it, as I described last week: the built-in appeal of a remake, the cult appeal of Tim Burton and Johnny Depp, and now the strong word of mouth appeal. The only thing dragging down its box office take is that it's in its second week. If Charlie and The Island opened opposite each other on the same weekend, Charlie would easily take the number one spot. Even without the opening weekend draw, I predict it will still take the number one spot.

Number 1 prediction for the weekend: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Movie Reviews

Well, the box office results are in, and it's Charlie followed by Crashers, as I predicted (not quite as close as I thought it would be, though). The box office is out-performing the similar weekends for last year for the 2nd week in a row, but this time by a solid 7.5%, rather than the 0.5% of last week. Charlie, in particular, I think is poised to be the first big blockbuster of the summer, for reasons that I will expound upon in:

My Movie Reviews!

(spoilers ahead)

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

This is one of the rare remakes that actually holds a candle to the original. I believe this is partially because Roald Dahl's story is simple and yet so great, with a fantastic cast of characters that has allowed it to survive for 40 years. That is not to take anything away from Tim Burton and co., who have quite simply made an amazing film. Visually, it's as stunning as the trailers make it look, particularly the introduction of the glass elevator, which quite oddly reminded me of the "portal" scene from this year's Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy movie. The production values far exceed the original, which is not surprising, given the advancements in modern technology. This is particularly apparent in the Oompa Loompa songs, which replace the campy tunes of the original with huge song and dance numbers that wouldn't be out of place in a musical from Hollywood's golden era (well, maybe a bit out of place, but...you know what I mean). The most striking difference between the original and this modern remake, however, is with the character of Willy Wonka. In the original, he is a static character, whose past is never revealed, and whom one can never be sure is telling the truth. In this remake, he becomes a dynamic character, with a back story involving his father, and family issues he must work out. While this did at first worry me, as such a back story is all too often dead weight, it was superbly handled in this remake.

As usual, this is just a remake that you can't really compare to the original, the main reason being that this doesn't have the camp value which makes the original so appealing. Willy Wonka doesn't toss off any literary allusions; Charlie's teacher doesn't talk about taking tests on Monday "before we've learned anything". Nevertheless, this is no strike against this movie, and I still recommend it, 4 stars, 2 thumbs up, etc. (aren't conclusions hard?)


Wedding Crashers

Most reviews of this movie have said it's a modern day Animal House. This is probably because there is a prominent montage towards the beginning of the movie set to the song "Shout", also prominently featured in Animal House. Wedding Crashers is a hilarious, raucous comedy, but it is not Animal House. The main difference between Animal House and other classic comedies of its ilk (Caddyshack, Meatballs, etc.), and most modern comedies, is that the classic comedies did not try to mix bizarre outlandish humor with a strong plotline. This is a convention that dates back to the Marx Brothers, and yet modern comedies seem to regularly ignore this rule. As such, most modern comedies have hilarious moments, yet fail from having plots that center around implausible deus ex machinas, or cloyingly sweet love stories. The comedies that succeed (and by succeed, I mean "are funny", not "make money") in this day and age are typically ones that completely mock these conventions, such as last year's Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story, or ones that have actors skilled enough to pull off their plots. Wedding Crashers falls into the latter category. Its crude humor is draped around a love story between Owen Wilson and Rachel McAdams, and while lesser actors would've have made this relationship completely trite and boring, these two actually manage to be sweet. Yes, there are sweet moments in a movie that get laughs from a handjob being performed at the dinner table. It is a fine tightrope to walk, but for the most part, Crashers walks it, with the exception of a "bummer" scene, about a half hour from the end, consisting of a montage of sadness over a sadder song. Other than this, however, this is a most enjoyable flick.

Also, do not think that this movie consists solely of dirty jokes. One of my favorite lines came early on; when crashing a Jewish wedding, Owen Wilson introduces himself and Vince Vaughn by saying, "Hi, I'm Lou Epstein, and I want to introduce you to a real mensch, Chuck Schwarz." Much humor is also derived solely from Christopher Walken's inimitable delivery of lines; he's the only actor that can make the line, "You know what your sister's like; we had to give her her Sweet 16 party when she was 13," funny.

Box Office Predictions for Monday

When I created this blog (about 5 minutes ago), I decided that as both a neat gimmick and a way to make sure I update at least once a week, every Friday I'd weigh in on who will take the weekend box office. Now that I find myself staring at figures, I somewhat regret that move, but I will carry through. Anyway, to begin with, there are only three movies, I think, that have a chance of taking it this weekend: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Wedding Crashers, and Fantastic Four, which was the #1 last weekend. War of the Worlds, the most recent Spielberg crapfest and #2 from last weekend, doesn't stand a chance, and if I may digress for a moment, I'd like to rant about that. First of all, I haven't seen this movie, and I never will. By all accounts it sucks, and even before accounts of it started coming out, I knew it would suck. How was I so remarkably prescient, you may ask? This movie has a triple-threat of suckage.

1. Tom Cruise. Tom Cruise sucks. Not only is he a crappy actor, he's a Scientologist (www.xenu.net). If that isn't enough reason to hate him, he also had to go and hoodwink Katie Holmes and trick her into believing that he'd rather be with her than some cheap trick named Jack he met in a bar.

2. Steven Spielberg. Steven Spielberg is an overrated, talentless hack. His movies succeed only because they are simple enough for the unwashed masses to follow. His movies suck because there are two important concepts he does not understand: character, and subtlety. Quick, name the best character from a Spielberg movie. You can't, because his movies don't have any characters! The only one I can come up with is Indiana Jones, and Indiana Jones is a great character only due to the input of Harrison Ford. Don't believe me? Consider that the lines, "It's not the years honey, it's the mileage,"; "I don't know; I'm making this up as I go along,"; and even the entire scene where Indiana simply shoots the Arab swordsman, widely considered to be the best scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark, were all Harrison Ford's idea. (There is a similar point to be made here about George Lucas and Han Solo. That is for another time). As for subtlety, well, Christ, when have you seen a Spielberg movie that didn't bash you over the head with every plot point and theme?

3. War of the Worlds. War of the Worlds isn't even that good of a book!!!!!

Anyway, if a movie is suck^3 I refuse to see it, and it seems like so does much of America, because my opinions aside, a drop of 53% in box office returns from its 1st weekend to its 2nd means War of the Worlds doesn't stand a chance of recapturing no. 1 at the box office.

As to the three films that do stand a chance, one of them, Fantastic Four, I only include because it is a wild card to me. It grossed $56 million at the box office last weekend, a strong showing, more than I would've predicted, and enough to finally lift the box office out of its slump. Impressive. Most impressive. But you are not a Jedi yet. While I admit the possibility that Fantastic Four could keep this up, I don't think it will have legs against two highly anticipated movies coming out today: Wedding Crashers and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

Wedding Crashers, as I'm sure you all know, is the latest entry from the "Frat Pack", the name USA Today gave to that group of comic actors made up of Vince Vaughn, Will Ferrell, the Wilson Brothers (Luke and Owen), Ben Stiller, and sometimes Jack Black (the IMDb includes him; Wikipedia does not). They generally make hugely successful movies; their most recent release, Anchorman: the Legend of Ron Burgundy, was a $26 million dollar film that made $28 million in its opening weekend alone, and went on to make $85 million domestically. Wedding Crashers looks even more promising to my eyes, as it stars the pairing of the supremely funny Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn, as opposed to the supremely unfunny Will Ferrell, and it has Christopher Walken, who is the man. Wedding Crashers will be held back by its R-rating, of course, as all junior entertainment analysts know, but I suspect it won't suffer as much as some people think.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is a massively anticipated remake; I've been looking forward to it since before they cast Johnny Depp in the lead role. Once my revulsion at the fact that they'd dare remake a classic like Willy Wonka wore off, I found myself quite looking forward to seeing what Tim Burton would create, and once I saw the teaser trailer, I was hooked. Burton is a fantastic director, and while Depp manages to piss me off almost every time he opens his mouth about something political, he is still the greatest actor of his generation.

So, all that being considered, my choice for #1 at the box office over the weekend July 15-17 is....*drumroll please*

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Quite simply, it's got the built-in audience of a remake, the cult appeals of Depp and Burton, and it's rated PG rather than Wedding Crahsers' R. Wedding Crashers will be a close second.